Independent Rolls vs Streak Myths in Pack Openings
Probability Team
5 min read
Core principle
Standard pack openings are modeled as independent rolls. Past results do not directly increase the next-roll chance.
Why streaks feel meaningful
Humans over-detect patterns in random sequences. Long dry streaks are emotionally strong but statistically expected at low drop rates.
Operational takeaway
Use budget caps and session goals before opening. Decision quality improves when you plan against distributions, not recent streak emotion.
Boundary condition
If a game mode introduces non-independent mechanics (such as pity systems), this guidance must be adjusted.